CPI Day | Morning Express | 1/12/2023
Posted: Jan. 12, 2023, 8:50 a.m.
- The U.S. CPI report for December is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are mounting for inflation to come down, but how much has already been discounted given the week-long melt higher in asset prices (stocks)?
- Analysts project headline inflation to dip back below 7% for the first time since October 2021, at +6.5% y/y and flat m/m.
- The Cleveland Fed model forecasts headline +6.64% y/y and +0.12% m/m.
- Analysts project Core inflation at the lowest since December 2021 at +5.7% y/y and +0.3% m/m.
- The Cleveland Fed model forecasts Core at +5.87% y/y and +0.48% m/m.
- The difference between analysts and the Cleveland Fed model, though marginal, provides an interesting dynamic given how one-sided expectations are for inflation to soften.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are also due at 7:30 am CT, and the U.S. Treasury will auction $18 billion 30-year Bonds at noon CT.
- According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 76% probability the Fed hikes 25bps at its February 1st meeting.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3990.00, up 49.25
NQ, yesterday’s: Settled at 11,476.50, up 194.50
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NQ (March)
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Crude Oil (February)
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Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1878.9, up 2.4
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.481, down 0.184
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Silver (March)
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