Core PCE Leading Into Holiday | Morning Express | 12/23/2022
Posted: Dec. 23, 2022, 7:27 a.m.
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, for November is due at 7:30 am CT, coupled with Personal Spending and Income data components, along with Durable Goods for November.
- Core PCE is expected at +4.7% y/y, down from 5.0% in October and +0.2% m/m, steady from October.
- Headline PCE is expected at +5.5 y/y, down from 6.0% in October, and +0.14% m/m, down from +0.3%. Headline estimates are from the Cleveland Fed.
- Final December Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT, including 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations.
- Better final Q3 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims, coupled with hedge fund manager David Tepper saying he is leaning short equities, created a windfall of risk-off through the session.
- Prices across stock indices and commodities stabilized into the close, with the S&P cutting losses in half. Crude Oil, Gold, Copper, and agricultural commodities are all higher overnight
- Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3849.25, down 56.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,054.25, down 280.25
- The S&P all but covered its November 9th gap at 3786 with a low of 3788.50. The NQ covered its, trading to the lowest level since November 7th.
- S&P -20% from record high is 3846.50.
- Will Santa show up today? PCE data front and center.
- Decisive move out above 3869.50-3875.50 through the first hour will likely garner added tailwinds.
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NQ (March)
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Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.29, up 2.06
- Russia is considering cutting Oil output by 5-7% in early 2023 in response to price caps, halting to countries that support the caps.
- WTI above 21-dma for the third straight session.
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Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1795.4, down 30.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.622, down 0.572
- Precious metals battling back from air-pocket selling yesterday late morning, on the heels of stronger economic data. PCE is on deck.
- Watch the U.S. Dollar, is it forming a bottom, or just stalling before lower?
- 30-year and 10-year futures, below 21-dma, signaling a negative momentum shift.
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Silver (March)
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