Livestock Roundup 12/16/22
Posted: Dec. 16, 2022, 9:17 a.m.
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Live Cattle (February)
Managed Money Position: 60,255 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: A bullish seasonal for April live cattle goes from December 9th to January 2nd and has played out for 15 straight years.
Techncials: February live cattle futures were lower yesterday, much of which we believe is tied to pressure in the outside markets. Some of it may have been on the back of another failure against technical resistance, which we've had outlined as 156.95-157.225. On the support side of things, the 100 and 50 day moving average will act as the first line of defense for the Bulls, those come in at 154.22 and 154.57. We would view these levels as opportunities to look at the buy-side, assuming outside markets can show some signs of stabilization.
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Feeder Cattle (January)
Managed Money Position: -4,872 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Technicals: January feeder cattle traded lower yesterday, but it wasn't enough to do any significant damage to the chart. 182.35-183.075 is our pivot pocket, this pocket represents the 100-day moving average along with previous resistance from the end of October and end of November. A break below here could trigger additional pressure down to 179.90-180.30, which represents previously important price points and the 50-day moving average.
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Lean Hogs (February)
Managed Money Position: 47,257 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend Play: A bullish seasonal trend for August lean hogs goes from December 6th to January 18th. This has played out for 12 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: Lean hogs took out Monday's low which accelerated the selling pressure and opens the door for a drop into the October 6th gap, 79.15-79.475. The RSI is at 31.27, not yet in "oversold" territory, but at the lower end of its range. If the market pulls back and defends the gap, it may be a decent risk/reward trade to the buy-side.
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