Livestock Roundup 12/14/22
Posted: Dec. 14, 2022, 8:27 a.m.
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Live Cattle (February)
Managed Money Position: 60,255 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: A bullish seasonal for April live cattle goes from December 9th to January 2nd and has played out for 15 straight years.
Techncials: February live cattle have made their way back to technical resistance, which neutralizes our near-term optimism, the same can be said for April futures. If you're playing the Bullish seasonal trend, remember that you're not tied to those dates.
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Feeder Cattle (January)
Managed Money Position: -4,872 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Technicals: Feeder cattle futures were able to firm yesterday, failing to take out highs for the week but closing at the highest price since September. This opens the door for a retest of those mid-September highs, 185.40-186.00. First support comes in from 182.55-182.85.
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Lean Hogs (February)
Managed Money Position: 47,257 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend Play: A bullish seasonal trend for August lean hogs goes from December 6th to January 18th. This has played out for 12 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: It was a choppy day for lean hogs, which if you trade or watch lean hogs, you know that's pretty much par for the course. The market rallied into our pivot pocket, 85.90-86.55 but failed there, spurring some selling in the last hour of trade. The reversal didn't do significant damage to the chart, but it does raise a caution flag. Support remains intact from 82.80-83.1, the Bulls NEED to defend this pocket to prevent a pullback to the October 6th gap, 79.15-79.475.
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