Livestock Roundup 12/12/22
Posted: Dec. 12, 2022, 8:19 a.m.
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Live Cattle (February)
Managed Money Position: 60,255 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: A bullish seasonal for April live cattle goes from December 9th to January 2nd and has played out for 15 straight years.
Techncials: February live cattle futures got hit hard last Tuesday and Wednesday but were able to defend our support pockets and the 200-day moving average. The market was able to rally back to our first resistance pocket on Friday, but fell short of breaking out, which keeps it intact to start this week's trade, 155.50-156.00. There's still plenty of time on the February futures, but we have been looking to the April contract with a bullish bias based on a similar technical landscape, but a more convincing seasonal trend.
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Feeder Cattle (January)
Managed Money Position: -4,872 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Technicals: January feeder cattle futures were able to chew through resistance on Friday, trading to their highest price since September 20th. This opens the door for a retest of those mid-September highs, 185.40-186.00. First support comes in from 182.55-182.85.
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Lean Hogs (February)
Managed Money Position: 47,257 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend Play: A bullish seasonal trend for August lean hogs goes from December 6th to January 18th. This has played out for 12 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: February lean hogs had a nice reversal off the lows on Thursday but weren't able to do much with it on Friday's session, which keeps the caution flag in the air. If the Bulls fail to defend support from 82.80-83.10, we could see additional technical selling open the door for a run at the October 6th gap, 79.15-79.475. With that said, seasonally this is a friendly time of year, and the risk is well defined, which could setup for a good risk/reward opportunity. On the resistance side of things, the Bulls want to achieve a close back above 85.90-86.55.
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