Livestock Roundup 12/09/22
Posted: Dec. 9, 2022, 7:47 a.m.
Oliver Sloup covered the action in the livestock markets during the 2nd half of his appearance on RFD-TV with Scott the Cow Guy.
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Live Cattle (February)
Managed Money Position: 58,745 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend (ending) in Play: February live cattle have pulled back from November 27th to December 9th for 14 of the last 15 years, with the average pullback being roughly 3.00.
Seasonal Trend (starting) in Play: A bullish seasonal for April live cattle starts today! April live cattle futures have trended higher for 15 of the last 15 years from December 9th to January 2nd. Click here for the details.
Techncials: February live cattle futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, doing little to change the technical landscape. Today is the last day of the February seasonal, which also marks the beginning of the April seasonal. We remain upbeat on live cattle futures, both fundamentally and technically. A break and close below support at 152.75 would neutralize that bias.
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Feeder Cattle (January)
Managed Money Position: -8,620 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend in Play: January feeder cattle have pulled back from November 29th to December 9th for 14 of the last 15 years, with the average pullback being roughly 3.00.
Technicals: Feeder cattle caught a bid yesterday, trading to the upper end of the recent range. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 183.50-184.20, we could see an extension towards 186. Keep in mind that there is a USDA report out this morning. This could put some volatility in the corn market, which could spill into feeder cattle futures.
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Lean Hogs (February)
Managed Money Position: 38,818 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)
Seasonal Trend Play: A bullish seasonal trend for August lean hogs goes from December 6th to January 18th. This has played out for 12 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: Lean hogs got hit hard yesterday but were able to rally off those spike lows, which happened to be very close to the spike lows we saw on September 26th and October 17th. We like looking at the Bullish side as the risk seems fairly well defined. A break and close below yesterday's low would neutralize that bias as it could open the door for additional pressure, with little technical support until the October 6th gap, 79.15-79.475.
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