China's Trade Balance Speaks Volumes | 12/07/2022
Posted: Dec. 7, 2022, 9:07 a.m.
- Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data for Q3 was a positive for risk-assets. Productivity topped expectations at +0.8% v +0.6% exp and up from 0.3% in prelim. Labor Costs were lower at +2.4% v +3.1% exp and down from 3.5% in prelim.
- Odds of only 75bps through February back to 43.9%, from 37.5% yesterday.
- China reopening jawboning continues, National Health Commission (NHC) issues 10 measures to move away from zero-virus policy.
- However, China’s Trade Balance data showed slowing global growth, Exports and Imports dropped more than expected, worse since February 2020 and March 2020, respectively.
- Stock indices slipped sharply yesterday after surrendering support and CEOs gave recession warnings.
- U.S. Dollar Index, rates, and levels of the S&P are at the forefront, see charts below.
- Weekly EIA data due at 9:30 am CT, see expectations in the Crude section.
- Do not miss yesterday’s Morning Express with more narrative.
- Bill Baruch joined the Traders Summit to discuss what he is trading and forecasting through the turn of the year.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3945.00, down 58.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,566.00, down 239.75
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NQ (December)
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Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 74.25, down 2.68
- Despite bleak China Trade balance data, Imports of Crude Oil rose y/y, and +12% m/m, a 10-month high.
- EIA due at 9:30 am CT, analysts expect -3.305 mb Crude, +2.707 mb Gasoline, and +2.208 mb Distillates. SPR release?
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Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1782.4, up 1.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.335, down 0.082
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Silver (March)
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