Grain Express 11/29/22
Posted: Nov. 29, 2022, 7:15 a.m.
Crop Progress Delayed
To no one's surprise, we have more delays from the USDA due to another reporting system outage
Export Inspections
Weekly export inspections for corn were disappointing at 302,350 metric tons, below the low end of estimates. Soybeans inspections were reported at 2,022,443, within the range of expectations. Wheat inspections came in at 198,519 metric tons, a hair below the low end of estimates.
Mexico GMO Ban
The United States on Monday threatened legal action against Mexico's plan to ban imports of genetically modified corn in 2024, saying it would cause huge economic losses and significantly impact bilateral trade.
-Reuters
Rail Strike
President Joe Biden on Monday called on lawmakers to quickly approve a labor deal that would avert what he called a “potentially crippling national rail shutdown” as early as Dec. 9.
“As a proud pro-labor President, I am reluctant to override the ratification procedures and the views of those who voted against the agreement,” Biden said in a statement. “But in this case — where the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt millions of other working people and families — I believe Congress must use its powers to adopt this deal.”
-CNBC
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are steady to firm in the early morning trade. Oil futures have rebounded as much as $6 off yesterday's low. Much of this rally came on the back of headlines suggesting that OPEC+ is considering supply cuts. Last week there were headlines suggesting an output increase. Welcome to the 2020's, where contradicting headlines seem par for the course.
Corn
Below is an updated look at how the funds are positioned
Seasonal Trend in Play: March corn futures have trended higher from November 16th to January 4th for 13 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: March corn futures are continuing their attempt at carving out a near term low. First resistance comes in from 672 3/4-674. This pocket represents the upper end of the recent range and the 200-day moving average. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see an extension towards 680-682 3/4. This pocket represents previously important price points that date as far back as the Spring, along with the 50-day moving average.
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Soybeans
Below is an updated look at how the funds are positioned
Seasonal Trend in Play: March soybeans have trended higher from November 16th to January 9th for 14 of the last 15 years.
Technicals: March soybeans rebounded well yesterday, which has carried over into some overnight/early morning strength. That has taken prices out above technical resistance. If this price action is confirmed through the floor open, it may be the start of a move back towards $15.00.
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Wheat
Below is an updated look at how the funds are positioned
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Technicals: There's some green on the chart this morning, but it's far from enough to put the Bulls at ease. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above $8.00 to start neutralizing some of the technical damage that has taken place through the month of November. Our bias will remain in bearish territory until that happens.
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