Grain Express 11/28/22
Posted: Nov. 28, 2022, 8:29 a.m.
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China
Chinese lockdowns continue to raise concerns over future demand for some commodities. Protesters have taken to the streets, according to ABC this morning, this has led to easing of "some rules".
Turning the Calendar
Wednesday marks the last trading day of the month, which may trigger some position squaring ahead of the last month of the year.
Commitments of Traders
The weekly CoT report, which is usually released on Fridays, will be released this afternoon. The release was pushed back due to Thanksgiving.
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are weaker, with the S&P down about 1%. Crude oil is the weak link, down roughly 3%.
Corn
March corn futures started the week on softer ground, along with many other commodity markets, with crude oil leading the way to the downside. The market is off the overnight lows as futures attempt to mark higher lows (vs last week). Resistance comes in from 672 3/4-674. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see an extension towards 680-682 3/4. This pocket represents previously important price points, along with the 50-day moving average.
Seasonal Trend in Play: March corn futures have trended higher from November 16th to January 4th for 13 of the last 15 years.
Managed Money Position: 165,847
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Soybeans
March soybean futures opened the Sunday night session lower, but were able to defend the lows from Wednesday, that comes in at 1429. Just below that is the 50-day moving average at 1425 1/4. We remain friendly the market based on seasonal tendencies, but the chart could really go either way as it continues to coil, building energy for a bigger directional move.
Seasonal Trend in Play: March soybeans have trended higher from November 16th to January 9th for 14 of the last 15 years.
Managed Money Position: 95,579
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Wheat
Lower highs and lower lows have been the trend for the last the month of November. March wheat futures are now trading at their lowest levels since August 22nd, which has brought the RSI to its lowest level since August. Our bias still leans in bearish territory for the time being.
Seasonal Trend in Play: None
Managed Money Position: -47,622
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