Grain Express 11/15/22
Posted: Nov. 15, 2022, 8:33 a.m.
Export Inspections
Yesterday's weekly export inspections for corn were reported at 484,001 metric tons, over twice as much as the previous week, but almost half of the same week last year. Soybean inspections were reported at 1,857,872 metric tons. Wheat inspections were reported at a dismal 76,408 metric tons.
Crop Progress
For those still interested, the USDA reported the U.S. corn harvest at 93% and soybeans at 96%. 96% of the winter wheat crop is planted, with 32% of the crop reported good/excellent, which is the same percentage of the crop that is reported as poor/very poor.
Rail Strike, Part III
Remember the rail strike? Yea, it's back on the table. The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers are the third union to vote against a tentative agreement. December 9th is the
A Look at the Outside Markets
PPI (Producer Price Index) came in at .2 MoM, .2% estimates. This dropped the dollar and popped the equity markets as traders take this as another sign of inflation potentially slowing. Crude oil is down .65%.
Corn
Corn futures have been consolidating for the last two and a half sessions, holding ground just above the 100-day moving average, 650-4. This is included in our support pocket, which we've outlined as 647 1/4-652 3/4. From a risk/reward perspective, we think there is opportunity to the buyside at these levels. With that said, a break and close below the low end of our support pocket would neutralize that bias as it could open the door for additional long liquidation and technical selling.
Coming Soon: March corn futures have trended higher from November 16th to January 4th for 13 of the last 15 years. For a breakdown of each of those years or to discuss potential ways to trade the trend, please reach out to the trade desk: 312-278-0500
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Soybeans
Consolidation is the name of the game. We remain optimistic on price as we head into the bullish seasonal trend. A break and close below the 50 and 100 day moving average would start to neutralize some of our near-term optimism. Those moving averages come in at 1420-5 and 1413-6
Coming Soon: We sent this Seasonal Trend Alert out last night. If you did not receive it, please let us know and we will send you the breakdown. March soybeans have trended higher from November 16th to January 9th for 14 of the last 15 years.
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Wheat
December wheat futures are attempting to build a base at our 4-star support pocket, 791 1/4-801 1/4. A failure here could spark additional technical selling, which could feed on itself. The next support pocket doesn't come in until the mid-740s.
Seasonal Trend in Play: Bearish March Chicago Wheat from November 4th to November 19th. This has played out for 13 of the last 15 years.
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