Grain Express 11/02/22
Posted: Nov. 2, 2022, 7:54 a.m.
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Grain Deal On? Wheat prices plunged after Russia agreed to resume the deal allowing safe passage of Ukrainian crop exports, reversing a weekend announcement that sowed chaos through agricultural markets and sent prices soaring. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed Moscow is resuming its participation in the Black Sea grain-export deal, after receiving written guarantees from Ukraine that the safe-passage corridor will only be used for grain exports. Ukraine has said repeatedly it would not use the corridor for military purposes. -Bloomberg A Look at the Outside Markets Equity markets have traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, crude oil has also been mixed, and the dollar is slightly lower. All eyes are on this afternoon's Federal Reserve meeting (1:00pm CT). Expectations are for another 75-basis point hike. Much of that is baked in, the important part will likely come in the press conference (1:30pm CT) where we may get a look at forward guidance. |
Corn
December corn futures appeared to be on the verge of taking out the Sunday night high yesterday but fell just short. The market fluttered around in a narrow range for much of the overnight session, the rolled over around 5am when news broke that grain would still be moving out of Ukranian ports. The market is right back to where we started the week, which is an interesting point on the chart. If the Bulls fail to defend the 680 area, we could see technical selling trigger long liquidation.
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Soybeans
January soybeans rallied to three-star resistance overnight, we've had that defined as 1454 1/4-1462 1/4. The test and failure against resistance moves our bias back to outright Neutral, as we could see the market backfill some of the recent breakout points. If the Bulls do test that pocket again in the near term, that may be enough to spark another move higher, with little technical resistance until you get near the $15 marker.
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Wheat
In yesterday's morning report we wrote: "We expect the volatility to continue as mixed headlines will likely continue to be a common theme.". Which is why we've kept our bias at Neutral and noted in previous reports that if you don't need to trade wheat, then you really don't need to. That may come across as boring and that's ok, but we prefer to use the term prudent.
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