Grain Express 11/01/22
Posted: Nov. 1, 2022, 8:37 a.m.
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He Said, She Said. There were a lot of mixed headlines yesterday regarding Russia and Ukraine grain exports. This will likely be a common trend in the near term, which will likely keep the volatility alive. Crop Progress Yesterday's crop progress report showed that the U.S. corn crop is 76% harvested, in line with estimates. Soybean harvest is 88% complete, in line with estimates. Winter wheat is 87% planted, with good/excellent conditions at a dismal 28%, well below the average analyst estimate of 41%. Poor/Very Poor ratings for winter wheat are at 35%. A Look at the Outside Markets We are just a few hours into a new month and for the most part it's a risk-on environment. Equity markets are up over 1%, crude oil is up 2%, and the dollar is softening some (offering some support to commodities). There is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon (1:00pm CT). Expectations are for another 75-basis point hike. Much of that is baked in, the important part will likely come in the press conference (1:30pm CT) where we may get a look at forward guidance. |
Corn
December corn futures came close to but were just shy of filling the Sunday night gap, 680 3/4-683 3/4. This pocket will continue to act as support in today's session. On the resistance side of things, our pocket from 698-700 remains intact. A breakout above or below these pockets could trigger a bigger directional move. We continue to believe there will be great shorter-term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market but think we may be inching closer to breaking out of the range.
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Soybeans
January soybeans are breaking out above the top end of the range this morning, if verified through the floor open, we could see this move begin to feed on itself. The next resistance pocket comes in from 1454 1/4-1462 1/4.
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Wheat
December wheat futures are slightly lower this morning, but still holding on to much of the gain we got from the Sunday night open. We expect the volatility to continue as mixed headlines will likely continue to be a common theme.
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