A Lot To Unpack, Here You Go | Morning Express | 10/27/2022
Posted: Oct. 27, 2022, 9:15 a.m.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3841.00, down 29.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,446.00, down 267.50
Fundamentals: Today boasts an ECB policy decision, the first look at Q3 GDP, and earnings from the largest company in the world, but yesterday’s news is all the talk. Meta Platforms, the social hit-maker formally known as Facebook, is slipping, falling, and cannot get up. The once behemoth is down another 22% this morning, marking a 74% plunge from its peak one year ago and flirting with the psychological $100 mark after whiffing on earnings. The company said its costs will rise by another 14%, compressing margins further and dragging out a transition to the virtual world that all except its founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg seem to question, as he asks for “patience”. Meta joins a slew of disappointments from big tech, including Microsoft and Alphabet, but the NQ index has been broadly resilient. All is not negative, though, even within tech. After yesterday’s bell, ServiceNow, known for its strong showing in earnings season (except for last), crushed estimates and is up 13% premarket. Elsewhere, MA, MRK, MCD, CMCSA, HON, and CAT are all reacting favorably to reports this morning, helping to underpin a fresh swing high in the Dow. However, with earnings from Apple, the largest, and Amazon, the fourth largest company by market cap, on deck for after the bell, tech and the market broadly face a real inflection point.
The ECB raised rates by 75bps across the board, as expected. The bank signaled more rate hikes to come but did not announce Quantitative Tightening, saying it intendeds to reinvest principal payments from PEPP program. ECB President Lagarde’s press conference starts at 7:45 am CT. On the economic calendar, the first look at U.S. Q3 GDP came in a touch better than expected at +2.6% versus 2.4%, but the Price Index was much lower than expected at 4.1% versus 5.3%. Initial Jobless Claims beat expectations at 217k versus 220K, and 214k last week. The big miss came from Core Durable Goods Orders which fell by -0.5% when +0.2% was expected.
There is a lot to unpack this morning, but the ECB did not rock the boat, earnings are good aside from Meta, and the economic data provides a favorable twist with prices lower and orders falling.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
NQ (December)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 87.91, up 2.59
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is staging a rally towards $90, underpinned by another inventory report watered down by a deluge of SPR release. Yesterday’s EIA report pointed to a composite build of 1.28 mb, however, the White House released 3.416 mb from the SPR. Added tailwinds are coming from the G7 looking to drop a plan to establish a price cap on Russian Oil. There is no doubt the plan spearheaded by the U.S. has created rifts among OPEC+ and even counties in the West. At the end of the day, we highlighted on Tuesday that China’s imports of Russian Crude were up 22% YoY in September and exports of refined fuel +36% YoY. A price cap on Russian Oil will only fuel added supplies being diverted and sold through China.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1669.2, up 11.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19.486, up 0.137
Fundamentals: Yesterday, we said, “With fundamentals helping to support underlying strength, it is now a matter of whether Gold and Silver can chew through significant levels of technical resistance.” Gold and Silver have not been able to chew through that resistance, and fundamentally, the U.S. Dollar rebounded overnight and encouraged a wave of selling across the metals complex. Most importantly, the U.S. Dollar gained 0.70% against the Chinese Yuan on the day. However, the Dollar Index has pared its strength in half, and the Treasury complex has firmed up from session lows after the ECB raised rates as expected and did not announce QT. Also, Q3 GDP beat slightly, but Prices came down to 4.1% versus 5.3% expected and 9.1% in Q2, as well as Jobless Claims ticking up to 217k from 214k last week (though 220k expected). All things considered, the pressure is reverted back to the technical landscape.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Silver (December)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial