South America
With harvest approaching an endpoint in the United States, attention is shifting to South America. Soybean planting in Brazil's southern state of Parana is at an 8-year low for this time of year, the delay comes on the back of wet weather. Planting in Mato Grosso is 67% complete, in line with last year's pace.
Ukraine Wheat
Ukraine is keeping its forecast of the winter wheat sowing area for the 2023 harvest unchanged at 3.8 million hectares despite a delay caused by unfavorable weather, deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Tuesday. -Reuters
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are giving back some of yesterday's gains in the early morning trade. Crude oil is up 1.30% to $86.50. The USD is in retreat and on the verge of a bigger technical breakdown if trendline support gives way, near 109.60. If the dollar continues to retreat, it could offer a kneejerk reaction higher for some commodities.
December corn futures continue to consolidate, presenting some great opportunities for short term traders, while driving the perma-bull/bear nuts. The sideways trade keeps our technical support and resistance levels intact. Rather than add fluff, we will leave it at that.
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Much like corn, soybeans remain mostly rangebound, which is great for the nimble traders, but a headache for those looking for a breakout or a breakdown. It should be noted that the gap in January soybeans is more pronounced than that of November. That gap comes in from 1357-1362 1/4. If that pocket gives way, we could see the selling accelerate with little support until the $13.00, which is technically and psychologically significant.
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Wheat futures are treading along support still, which we have outlined as 833-839. A failure to defend this pocket could trigger a bigger break, potentially taking prices back below $8.00. As mentioned in previous reports, we could make the case for a 40 cent move in either direction, for that reason we are keeping our bias at Neutral.
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