Grain Express 10/26/22

Posted: Oct. 26, 2022, 9:15 a.m.

South America

With harvest approaching an endpoint in the United States, attention is shifting to South America.  Soybean planting in Brazil's southern state of Parana is at an 8-year low for this time of year, the delay comes on the back of wet weather.  Planting in Mato Grosso is 67% complete, in line with last year's pace.

Ukraine Wheat

Ukraine is keeping its forecast of the winter wheat sowing area for the 2023 harvest unchanged at 3.8 million hectares despite a delay caused by unfavorable weather, deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters on Tuesday. -Reuters

A Look at the Outside Markets

Equity markets are giving back some of yesterday's gains in the early morning trade.  Crude oil is up 1.30% to $86.50.  The USD is in retreat and on the verge of a bigger technical breakdown if trendline support gives way, near 109.60.  If the dollar continues to retreat, it could offer a kneejerk reaction higher for some commodities.  

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Corn

December corn futures continue to consolidate, presenting some great opportunities for short term traders, while driving the perma-bull/bear nuts.  The sideways trade keeps our technical support and resistance levels intact.  Rather than add fluff, we will leave it at that. 

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Soybeans

Much like corn, soybeans remain mostly rangebound, which is great for the nimble traders, but a headache for those looking for a breakout or a breakdown.  It should be noted that the gap in January soybeans is more pronounced than that of November. That gap comes in from 1357-1362 1/4.  If that pocket gives way, we could see the selling accelerate with little support until the $13.00, which is technically and psychologically significant. 

ZSX2022_2022-10-26_07-06-32

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Wheat

Wheat futures are treading along support still, which we have outlined as 833-839.  A failure to defend this pocket could trigger a bigger break, potentially taking prices back below $8.00.  As mentioned in previous reports, we could make the case for a 40 cent move in either direction, for that reason we are keeping our bias at Neutral. 

ZWZ2022_2022-10-26_07-09-26

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