Commitments of Traders
Friday's CoT report (through Oct. 18) showed the following:
Corn: Managed Money sold roughly 13k contracts, shrinking their net long position to 254k.
Soybeans: Managed Money bought roughly 1k contracts, narrowly expanding their net long position to 71k.
Wheat: Managed Money sold roughly 3k contracts, expanding their net short position to 22k.
Harvest
This afternoon’s weekly crop progress report is expected to show corn harvest near 60% complete and soybeans near 80%.
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are firm, oil is down over 2%, and the US Dollar is hovering around 112.00. The Hang Sang Index (Hong Kong's stock market) is down roughly 7% this morning.
There's not much to say about the technical landscape of December corn futures that hasn't been said recently. The market continues to be very rangebound, keeping many of the technical support and resistance levels intact.
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Soybeans were able to rally on Friday, some of which may have been on the back of options expiration. Futures are giving back those gains in the early morning trade. With November options expiration behind us, the volume will be shifting to the January contract. The bullish seasonal ends this week and the Bulls are narrowly hanging on. As with corn, the market is mostly rangebound, so there's not a lot of updates on support and resistance levels to start the week.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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December wheat futures are continuing to consolidate near 840. A break and close below this pocket could trigger additional technical selling which could take prices back near the technically and psychologically significant $8.00 handle. We could make the case for 40 cents in either direction, for that reason we are keeping our bias at Neutral.
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