Grain Express 10/19/22
Posted: Oct. 19, 2022, 9:01 a.m.
Brazil
"Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 42.8 million hectares for (marketing year) 2021/22, up previously from 42.5 million hectares. Brazil continues to expand its area due to record high domestic soybean prices. Post forecasts a record harvest at 148.5 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 144 MMT previously with planting starting earlier this year as well. Post increased the export forecast in 2022/223 to 95.7 MMT, an increase from 92 MMT. Post revised imports downwards due to ample supplies, now forecast at 300,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022/23. For 2022/23, Post revised the forecast for soybeans destined for processing upward to a record of 50 MMT based on strong demand for Brazilian soybean products, especially oil." -USDA 10/18/2022
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are moderately lower this morning, crude oil is up 1.5%, and the U.S. Dollar is firming, up .70%.
Corn
December corn futures are drifting lower in the early morning trade, mirroring the early morning trade from yesterday's session. Remember that we were lower yesterday morning, but the market was firm during the regular trading hours from 8:30-1:15 CT. Yesterday's lows came in just above 3-star support, which keeps it intact from 668 1/2-672. A break and close below here would neutralize our bias. The Bulls want to see a conviction close or consecutive closes back above 680-684 to encourage another run back at the psychologically significant $7.00 handle.
Seasonal Trend in Play: December corn has been higher from October 10th-October 20th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Soybeans
In yesterday's report we moved our bias to outright Neutral after failing to gain any meaningful ground above $14 last week. The market is now at the lower end of the risk range, which we have had outline as 1345-1355. A break and close below here could accelerate the selling pressure, with little meaningful technical support until you get closer to the psychologically significant $13.00 handle.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Wheat
Wheat futures broke below 4-star support yesterday but were able to close above it, which keeps it intact for today's session. The Bulls need to continue defending this pocket, a break and close below could trigger additional technical selling, potentially opening the door for a drop back below $8.00. The erratic trading environment keeps our bias Neutral.
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