Grain Express 10/18/22
Posted: Oct. 18, 2022, 8:19 a.m.
Export Inspections
Yesterday's weekly export inspections for corn came in at 448,423 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Soybeans came in at 1,882,386. This was above the top end of estimates. Wheat inspections were reported at 231,842, below the low end of estimates.
Harvest
Yesterday's crop progress report showed the U.S. corn crop is 45% harvested. This was 1% behind expectations and 5% behind the 5-year average. The soybean harvest was reported to be 63% complete, 3% more than expected and 11% ahead of the 5-year average. The winter wheat crop is 69% planted.
NOPA Crush
Yesterday's NOPA Crush report came in at 158.109 million bushels, below the average estimate of 161.627.
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets came out of a cannon yesterday and are seeing follow-through strength in the early morning trade. Crude oil is little changed, and the U.S. dollar has been mixed overnight.
Corn
December corn futures finished lower in yesterday's trade, which has spilled into some additional weakness in the early morning trade. We've listed 680-684 as first minor support, that has been violated overnight. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above hits pocket, we could see the market continue to bleed lower, with the next support pocket coming in closer to 670.
Seasonal Trend in Play: December corn has been higher from October 10th-October 20th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Soybeans
Soybean futures have been choppy over the last few sessions, trading in the middle of two significant support and resistance levels; 1350sih and 1410ish. A break below or above these levels would likely spark a bigger directional move. Right smack dab in the middle, our bias is at outright Neutral.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Wheat
December wheat futures are softer in the early morning trade as the market settles back into 4-stary support, 839-849. From a risk/reward perspective this may be worth a look to the long side, a break and close below would neutralize that thesis.
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