Grain Express 10/17/22
Posted: Oct. 17, 2022, 9:12 a.m.
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Commitments of Traders (through 10/11/22)
Corn - Managed Money were net buyers of 25,732 futures/options contracts, increasing their net long position to 254,553.
Soybeans - Managed Money were net sellers of 11,755 futures/options contracts, shrinking their net long position to 65,606.
Wheat - Managed Money were net sellers of 7,201 futures/options contracts, increasing their net short position to 19,889.
Russia/Ukraine
Russia carried out a string of "kamikaze drone" attacks in Ukraine's capital city, Kyiv. This may be adding a premium to the wheat market in the early morning trade
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets are firm in the early morning trade, crude oil is little changed, and the U.S. Dollar is slightly weaker.
Corn
Corn started the new week of trade under minor pressure but are back in positive territory at the time or writing this. As mentioned last week, the inability to break down despite having reasons to, should be a caution flag for the Bears. The sideways consolidation is starting to form what could be a bull-flag. A break and close first support, 680-684, would negate this.
Seasonal Trend in Play: December corn has been higher from October 10th-October 20th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Soybeans
The failure to get out above technical resistance, 1407 1/2-1415 3/4, certainly mutes some of the conviction from Bulls as it marks another series of lower highs. If the Bulls are able to chew through this pocket, it could open the door for an extension wards 1450. On the support side of things, there is some in the mid 1370s, but 1345-1355 remains the more significant pocket.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Wheat
Wheat futures got taken to the woodshed on Friday. The 40(ish) cent trading range on Friday doesn't even standout on the chart as it has become fairly common. This type of environment is keeping our bias at outright Neutral. As mentioned previously; if you don't need to trade wheat, you may be better off preserving your mental capital for another market.
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