Grain Express 10/14/22
Posted: Oct. 14, 2022, 9:10 a.m.
Export Sales
Corn: Net sales of 200,200 MT for 2022/2023
Soybeans: Net sales of 724,400 MT for 2022/2023
Wheat: Net sales of 211,800 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023
Logistics
Logistics continue to be a big concern, both river and rail. The low water levels of the Mississippi and Ohio river are creating delays and making it hard to ship grain to export terminals. The risk of a railway strike is also hanging over head as negotiations continue. The next vote will take place mid-November.
Inflation Data
Yesterday's CPI (Consumer Price Data) rose 8.2% from a year earlier, analysts were expecting to see a rise of 8.1%. The initial reaction from the outside markets was sharply lower, but everything reversed mid-morning and markets continued to rally into the afternoon
A Look at the Outside Markets
Equity markets have been choppy in the overnight trade, following yesterday's WILD day. The US Dollar is recovering some of yesterday's losses, trading back to 113.00. Crude oil is down roughly $2.
Corn
December corn futures had an inside day (trading within the previous day's range). The consolidation is continuing in the early morning trade, which is starting to form what could be a Bull-Flag. If the bulls can chew through 706 1/4-708, we could see an extension towards the June 1st gap, that comes in from 725 3/4-728 1/4. A break and close below 680-684 would neutralize our bias.
Seasonal Trend in Play: December corn has been higher from October 10th-October 20th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Soybeans
Soybeans have tested our resistance pocket again in the overnight session, 1407 1/2-1415 3/4, but have so far failed. Our bias remains Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. If the Bulls can chew through that resistance pocket, it could spark a bigger move, back towards the top end of the multi-month range, in the neighborhood of 1460/1470.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Wheat
Wheat futures were all over the place yesterday, which is about par for the course. The market did take out support, but managed to close back above it, keeping it intact. With that said, it was enough to neutralize the short-term technical landscape. As mentioned previously; if you don't need to trade wheat, you may be better off preserving your mental capital for another market.
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