Livestock Roundup 10/12/22
Posted: Oct. 12, 2022, 7:47 a.m.
Cattle Summary
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 246.75, Up 2.12 from the previous day.
Select: 212.85, Down .97 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 33.90
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: N/A
Live Heifer: 146.00
Dressed Steer: 229.36
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 128,000. Unchanged from last week and 8,000 more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
10/10/2022: 174.64
10/07/2022: 175.61
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
Live cattle futures not only erased the losses from Monday, but actually closed out above Monday's high. If the Bulls can defend yesterday's price action, we could finally get the move that we've been looking for, which is a trade back near the September 22nd breakdown point, 149.575-150.00. If we make new lows for the week and close below our 4-star support pocket, we would neutralize our bias, if not, flip to outright bearish.
Seasonal Trend in Play: April live cattle have been higher from October 5th-November 11th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Feeder Cattle
November feeder cattle futures were able to achieve a nice recovery rally yesterday. As with live cattle, feeders were not only able to recover losses from Monday, but actually gain ground and trade into positive territory for the week. With that said, the Bulls still have their work cut out for them. The Bulls need to see a move out above 177.90-178.35 to feel more confident about a potential trend change.
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Hogs Summary
Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT)
Carcass Base Price
Range: 78.00-93.00
Weighted Average: 87.88
Change from Prior Day: 3.74
Head Count: 9,233
Daily Hog Slaughter
489,000. Up 2,000 from last week and 7,000 from last year.
Technical Snapshot
Lean Hogs
December lean hogs were choppy in yesterday's trade (what's new). Previous resistance is now our pivot pocket, 78.40. So long as the Bulls can defend this pocket, we think that the market could retrace the September 26th breakdown point, closer to 81 and change. If the pivot point giveaway, it'll be back to the meat grinder, call it 75.00-78.00.
Upcoming Seasonal Trend: December lean hogs have been lower from October 15th-November 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.
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