Grain Express 10/12/22
Posted: Oct. 12, 2022, 7:34 a.m.
Crop Progress
Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed that corn harvest in the U.S. is 31% complete, 3% slower than the average estimate. Soybean harvest in the U.S. is 44% complete, 3% ahead of estimates. Winter wheat planting is 55% complete.
Export Inspections
Weekly export inspections were out yesterday morning. Corn inspections came in at 457,366 metric tons, below the 672,835 we saw last week. Soybeans were the bright spot with inspections coming in at 969,212 metric tons, well above the 585,271 in last week's reporting. Wheat inspections were at 614,371, little changed from the previous week.
USDA Day!
Today's USDA report is scheduled to be released at 11:00 AM CT. Analysts are expecting to see yield drop from 172.5 to 171.8. The range of estimates come in from 170.1-173.9. For soybeans, the average yield estimate is 50.5, unchanged from last month. Below are convenience tables with estimates.
Corn
December corn futures couldn't get any follow-through buying gin yesterday's session as a retreating wheat market likely put a headwind in prices. Prices are back below the technically and psychologically significant 700 level, which will act as a very important pivot pocket following today's USDA report. Looking at the chart, there's 20-25 cents of risk on either side of 7.00. Significant resistanace comes in from 725 3/4-728 1/4. This represents the gap from June 21st. On the support side, there's not a lot until you get closer to 670.
Seasonal Trend in Play: December corn has been higher from October 10th-October 20th for 13 of the last 15 years.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Soybeans
Soybean futures were choppy in yesterday's session as the market consolidates near first support, 1373-1376. If the Bulls fail to defend this level, we could see a retest of our 4-star support pocket from 1345-1355. If that fails, the Bulls are in serious trouble as there is little support below until 1300. With that said, we like the risk/reward to the buy side here using a limited risk options strategy. A move out above 14.00 could encourage momentum buyers to jump on board.
Seasonal Trend in Play: November soybeans have been higher from October 4th-October 27th for 13 of the last 15 years.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Wheat
Just like that, December wheat futures are right back at trendline support. A failure to defend this and last week's lows could trigger additional selling pressure. If you look at the chart, 40 cent ranges look like a fairly normal candle on a bar chart. So, as mentioned before, if you don't need to trade wheat, you may be better off preserving your mental capital for another market.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial