Livestock Roundup 10/11/22
Posted: Oct. 11, 2022, 8:28 a.m.
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Cattle Summary
*Due to Columbus Day, this is the same summary from Friday's USDA reporting.
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 246.07, Down 1.29 from the previous day.
Select: 216.13, Down .86 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 29.94
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 145.97
Live Heifer: 145.61
Dressed Steer: 230.19
Dressed Heifer: 230.43
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 118,000. 3,000 more than last week and 4,000 more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
10/07/2022: 174.61
10/06/2022: 174.92
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
December live cattle futures failed at resistance yet again, coupled with weakness in the outside markets we saw the market retreat back towards 4-star support, 146.50-146.70 (yesterday's low was 146.725). We were hopeful that we would get the move above resistance to take us closer to 150.00. Though this is still our bias, patience is waning.
Seasonal Trend in Play: April live cattle have been higher from October 5th-November 11th for 13 of the last 15 years.
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Feeder Cattle
November feeder cattle futures made new lows for the move, trading at their lowest levels since May. This breakdown opens the door for a retest of the contract lows from May 20th and 23rd, 170.85-171.00. Coincidently (probably not), corn futures are at their highest levels since June. Though the daily correlation hasn't been 100%, it's been strong over the last several months.
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Hogs Summary
*Due to Columbus Day, this is the same summary from Friday's USDA reporting.
Daily Direct Hogs Plant Delivered (as of 1:30 PM CT)
Carcass Base Price
Range: 79.00-95.00
Weighted Average: 86.89
Change from Prior Day: -2.51
Head Count: 3,859
Daily Hog Slaughter
480,000. Up 27,000 from last week and 7,000 from last year.
Technical Snapshot
Lean Hogs
December lean hog futures were able to take out resistance at 78.40 which could open the door for a move into our next pocket, 80.825-81.525. We've been long and wrong on this market for the last few weeks, so don't mistake our optimism for higher prices as a victory lap in calling a bottom.
Upcoming Seasonal Trend: December lean hogs have been lower from October 15th-November 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.
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