Jobs Today Sets Stage for CPI | Morning Express 10/07/2022
Posted: Oct. 7, 2022, 7:33 a.m.
Nonfarm Payrolls for September are due at 7:30 am CT. Headline job growth is expected at 250,000. Wage Growth will be watched most closely as it becomes a sticky factor driving consumer prices, it is expected at +0.3% MoM, flat from August, and +5.1% YoY, down from 5.2%. Analysts see the Unemployment Rate remaining steady at 6.7%.
A hotter jobs report will erode risk sentiment as it increases expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Ahead of the report, there is a 74.3% probability the Federal Reserve hikes by 75bps on November 2nd and an 80.6% chance they hike by 50bps through yearend. Traders should keep an eye on the odds for two 75bps hikes before yearend, which currently sit at 18%.
Today’s report will be critical, but ultimately, we believe it sets the stage for CPI next Thursday and the sentiment of market participants as well as how they are positioned going into it. Check out yesterday’s Morning Express titled ‘An Extremely Bullish Parallel’.
Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3756.75, down 37.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,541.75, down 82.00
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NQ (December)
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Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 88.45, up 0.69
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Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1720.8, unchanged
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20.66, up 0.116
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Silver (December)
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