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Click this link to watch yesterday's interview with RFD-TV! Export Sales Yesterday's export sales report wasn't enough to get the Bulls excited. Net sales for soybeans and wheat were within the range of expectations, but corn was well below the low end of estimates. CONAB CONAB, the "USDA" of Brazil sees their corn and soybean crop up big this year. They have new crop soybean estimates at 152.352 million tons, roughly 21% more than last year. Corn production is estimated to be at 126.942 million tons, roughly 12.5% more than last year. A Look at the Outside Markets The U.S. dollar made a sharp recovery rally in the previous two sessions but is little changed in the early morning trade. Non-farm payroll data will be out this morning which may pump some volatility back into the outside markets. The average analyst estimate is for 250k jobs, down from 315k last month. Oil continues to grind higher and is within range of tagging the psychologically significant $90 level.

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Corn

The market broke below our pivot pocket yesterday which kept the pressure on corn through the session. The market found its footing in the overnight and early morning trade, taking prices back near the pivot pocket, 678-682. The Bulls want to see a close above here to encourage a move back to the top end of the recent range. As mentioned for weeks now, we are in the camp that there will continue to be a lot of short-term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. A breakout or breakdown above or below technical levels could spark a bigger directional move.

A bullish seasonal for December corn starts next week, October 10th and goes through October 20th. During this time frame, December corn futures have trended positively for 13 of the last 15 years.

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Soybeans

Soybeans traded to 1350 yesterday. The gap from July 26th went down to 1349 1/4, so technically it is still open. With that said, we noted in our interview with RFD-TV yesterday that we would call this close enough to being filled for now (maybe it gets fully filled eventually) but we like looking to the long side down here. We've been patiently waiting for 4-star support from 1345-1355 to be tested, yesterday was the day and it was able to hold (for now). Significant support coupled with a bullish seasonal time of year has us moving our bias into bullish territory. A break and close below support would put us back in neutral. We were looking at January call spreads for clients. If you'd like to learn more about the trade setup, please reach out.

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Wheat

Wheat continues to trade like, well, wheat. A sharp pullback to trendline support yesterday puts prices at a bit of an inflection point. First support in yesterday's report was 873-880, the low was 873 1/4. A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again. If you can't stomach the day to day swings, then we don't recommend trading wheat. If you are comfortable with the market, a pullback to trendline support represents a good risk/reward buying opportunity. Ressistance comes in from 913-923.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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