Grain Express 10/05/22

Posted: Oct. 5, 2022, 7:33 a.m.

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Updated Yield Estimates

StoneX, one of the many FCMs we do business with just released their October yield survey results. They have the national average corn yield at 173.9, up .7 from their September survey. They have the U.S. soybean yield at 51.3, down .5 from September. Below is a state-by-state breakdown.

Water Levels

Low water levels on the Mississippi have created a backlog of barges. Reuters reported that about 100 towboats hauling upwards of 1,600 barges are stuck. The Army Corps of Engineers are working to dredge the shipping lanes. Some shippers are also lessening the weight of their loads.

A Look at the Outside Markest

The US Dollar got hit hard yesterday but is rebounding in the early morning trade. The rebound is putting some pressure on commodities. The oil market is steady, and equities are under minor pressure. The OPEC meeting is today, expectations of a production cut are widely known, but how big of a cut remains to be seen.

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Corn

There's not a lot of new technical developments for corn as the market remains mostly rangebound between our support and resistance levels. We have been in and remain in the camp that believes there will be short term trading opportunities for participants on both sides. A break above resistance or below support would likely change that theses as we could see the market take more of a direction, other than sideways.

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Soybeans

Soybean rallied yesterday, but it was really nothing more than retracing the breakdown point from Friday. Lower highs and lower lows have been the trend of late, but the market is approaching significant support. Below the low end of the recent range is the gap from July 26th, that comes in near 1350. There is a Bullish seasonal for November soybeans started yesterday, but as mentioned in yesterday's report we are a bit hesitant to jump on board just yet. Our hesitancy comes from the delay in planting pushing back harvest, which may bump back the seasonals just a hair.

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Wheat

Wheat futures continue to be very choppy, but the overall chart structure remains constructive. Resistance from 940-950 is the pocket the Bulls need to get out above. A failure to do so could drop prices back to trendline support, which we outlined as 873-880 in yesterday's report.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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