Grain Express 10/03/22

Posted: Oct. 3, 2022, 8:33 a.m.

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Golden Week

China is on holiday this week as they celebrate Golden Week, a holiday that commemorates the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949. This may limit some of their agricultural buying this week.

Crop Progress

Analysts expect corn to be near 20% harvested in the States. Soybean harvest is estimated to be 18% complete. Those these are behind last year's pace, it's important to remember that it was a slow start to planting.

Managed Money

Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 10,054 futures/options contracts through September 27th, trimming their net long position to 237,854. For soybeans, Managed Money were net sellers of 9,860 futures/options contracts, putting them net long 94,831 contracts.

A Look at the Outside Markets

Crude oil is sharply higher following discussions that OPEC will cut oil production by 1 million barrels per day. The official meeting is on Wednesday.

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Corn

Corn futures rallied on Friday, bumping its head against technical and psychologically significant resistance near $7.00. That failure took prices back to where we were trading pre-report, which was still a decent gain on the day. Some of the choppy action may have been due to it also being the last trading day of the month and quarter.

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Soybeans

Soybeans took a dive on Friday following a bearish quarterly stocks report. The market has not seen any follow-through selling to start the new week, month, and quarter, which is a silver lining for the Bulls. With that said, if the consolidation gives way to weakness, we could see the market finally fill the gap from July 26th, that comes in from 1349 1/4-1356.

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Wheat

The wheat chart remains incredibly constructive as the market works its way out above the 100 and 200 day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year. 940-950 is a significant resistance pocket, we wouldn't be surprised to see prices fail here on the first test. With that said, if the Bulls can chew through this pocket, there are almost clear skies for another $1.00.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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