Grain Express 9/27/22
Posted: Sept. 27, 2022, 6:36 a.m.
Weekly Export Inspections
Yesterday's weekly export inspections for corn and beans were below the low end of estimates for analysts. Wheat inspections were in line with expectations.
Crop Progress
The weekly crop progress report showed the U.S. corn crop is 12% harvested, 1% behind expectations, but nothing to get concerned about. Soybean harvest was reported at 8% complete.
Quarterly Stocks Report
The USDA will release quarterly stocks data on Friday, 11am CT. The average analyst estimates are as follows: Corn, 1.512 billion bushels; Soybeans, .242 billion bushels; Wheat 1.776 billion bushels.
Outside Markets
Outside markets continue to be watched closely as the volatility has affected money flow in commodities recently. The U.S. Dollar is slightly weaker in the early morning trade but remains above yesterday's low.
Corn
The corn market has tested and so far held our 3-star support pocket, 665-668 1/2. In yesterday's report we noted that "we wouldn't be surprised to see it hold on the first test.". With that in mind, we moved our bias from outright Bearish to Neutral/Bearish, thinking that there might be a good risk/reward setup here, for bears to cover some shorts and bulls to dip the toes in. A break and close below support would be the point where would reassess that thesis.
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Soybeans
Soybean futures were able to test and defend 4-star support through yesterday's session and again in the overnight trade, we've had that support pocket outlined as 1407 1/2-1415 3/4. As with corn, this moved our bias from outright Bearish to Neutral/Bearish; thinking that there might be a good risk/reward setup here, for bears to cover some shorts and bulls to dip the toes in. A break and close below support would be the point where would reassess that thesis.
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Wheat
Wheat futures continued to pull back yesterday, along with many other markets as the dollar made fresh new 20-year highs. Our pivot pocket was tested and seems to be holding, that comes in from 859 1/4-863 3/4. The USD will continue to be an important catalyst to keep an eye on through this week's trade.
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