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After new news that Russia is set to hold elections in some of eastern Ukraine's separatist regions, market participants got worried about grain exports from the Black Sea, sending wheat near limit up. Oliver Sloup also covers the latest in corn and live cattle.

Tensions in the Black Sea

Russia announced plans to annex four regions totaling roughly 15% of Ukraine. This has (raised concerns (again) over potential export disruptions from the region. The area in the spotlight is responsible for about 21% of Ukraine's wheat production as you can see below, illustrated by a graphic from the USDA.

Fed Watch Today is the day that market nerds have been waiting for. The Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decision this afternoon, 1pm CT. The consensus is for a 75-basis point hike. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech may be just as if not more important for the outside markets as it could shed light on future moves by the Fed.

Harvest Harvest in the U.S. continues to ramp up. Estimates for corn yields have been wide enough to drive an 18-wheeler through, as harvest continues along the market should start to get more clarity on what this year's crop will produce. Then, attention will quickly shift to South America as planting gets under way in Argentina and soon Brazil.

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Corn

Corn futures were able to chew through our pivot pocket yesterday, which has opened the door for an extension back to the highs from last week, 698 1/4-699 1/2. In yesterday's Tech Talk we talked about using rallies as a selling opportunity this year but noted a technical breakout above resistance could spur a bigger directional move, with little resistance above $7.00 until the June 21st gap. That gap comes in from 725 3/4-728 1/4.

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Soybeans

Soybeans have drifted back towards the highs from last week's bullish USDA report. If the Bulls can keep this momentum going, we could see a retest of the technically and psychologically significant $15.00 handle. Though the Bearish seasonal is in play, the chart lacks conviction to confirm it, which will keep our bias stuck in Neutral for the time being.

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Wheat

Shortly after we moved our bias from bearish territory to outright neutral and hit send on the morning commentary, wheat futures ripped higher. We've been in this industry to recognize that this isn't the first and won't be the last time that happens. We noted in yesterday afternoon's Tech Talk that the next line in the sand for resistance would be the 200-day moving average, which was tagged in the overnight session. Above that, there's not much until you get closer to 940.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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