Grain Express 9/20/22
Posted: Sept. 20, 2022, 12:49 p.m.
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Crop Progress
Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn harvest at 7% complete and soybean harvest at 3% complete. Spring wheat harvest is 94% complete and winter wheat planting is reported at 21%
Export Data
Yesterday's weekly export inspections data was in line with the range of analysts' estimates. There was a flash-sale yesterday morning; private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.
Harvest and Seasonals
Harvest will continue to ramp up throughout the Midwest, which may give the market more clarity on final yield estimates and overall production. The bearish Soybean seasonal started on September 17th and goes through October 2nd. This time frame has been bearish for 13 of the last 15 years with the average decline being roughly 45 cents.
Fed Watch
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points tomorrow, this would be the third straight 75 bp hike as the Fed attempts to fight inflation which is at 40-year highs. There are some analysts who believe the Fed may be "over correcting" in their efforts after ignoring the problem for far too long.
Corn
The 100-day moving average and trendline support managed to hold in yesterday's session, which has helped offer relief back to our pivot pocket, 682-685. As mentioned for several weeks now, we believe that we will continue to see short term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market. Once harvest gets closer to 50% complete and we have a better idea of what type of crop we are looking at, we may see the market start to trend more.
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Soybeans
Soybean futures continue to wander around in about a dollar range. With prices closer to the top end of the recent range than the bottom end of the recent range, we would lean towards the bearish side, if we were forced to make a decision. However, the conviction is low, which is keeping our bias in neutral territory for the time being.
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Wheat
Chicago wheat futures pulled back to the 50-day moving average yesterday and are so far able to defend that. That comes in at 816 1/2, just below yesterday's low, 819 1/4. If that gives way, we could see further selling pressure take us back below the psychologically significant $8.00 handle.
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