Central Banks and Growth Outlook | Morning Express 9/19/2022
Posted: Sept. 19, 2022, 9:13 a.m.
- Do not miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday.
- In an interview with 60 Minutes, President Biden reiterated U.S. troops would defend Taiwan, “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.” However, the White House said U.S. policy regarding Taiwan has not changed.
- Central bank extravaganza. The U.S. Federal Reserve headlines the week with a policy decision on Wednesday at 1:00 pm CT, but we also look to decisions from the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England early Thursday. Additionally, emerging market central banks from Indonesia to Turkey will meet.
- China will quote its Loan Prime Rate tonight at 8:15 pm CT, after cutting it by 5bps one month ago, for the first time since December.
- Do not forget FedEx warning to finish out the week. More warnings to come?
- Slew of central bank tightening erodes growth outlook and puts risk-sentiment on its back foot.
- Odds for the Federal Reserve to hike by 75bps on Wednesday sit at 80%, with 200bps through yearend hanging at 56.1%.
- U.S. 10-year Note yield poked to a new swing high of 3.518% before retreating. The 30-year Bond yield held below last Tuesday’s high of 3.572%.
- Long-end yields have retreated due to eroding global growth story.
- Goldman Sachs lowered is U.S. GDP estimate to +1.1% in 2023, from +1.5%. Their 2022 estimate was left unchanged at 0%.
- Weaker growth outlook driving Crude Oil, equity markets, and commodities broadly, are lower on the session.
- Short-end yields, like the 2-year are holding at new highs.
- 2s10s curve flatten deepens, testing -0.50bps, the theoretical line in the sand.
- U.K is on holiday today due to Queen Elizabeth’s funeral. Japan is also on holiday.
- U.S. NAHB Housing Survey due at 10:00 am CT.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3890, down 29.25 on Friday and down 195.50 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,933.50, down 74.00 on Friday and 736.75 on the week
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NQ (December)
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Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 84.76, up 0.11 on Friday and down 1.60
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Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1683.5, up 6.2 on Friday and down 45.1 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: SSettled at 19.381, up 0.112 on Friday and up 0.614 on the week
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Silver (December)
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