Grain Express 9/16/22

Posted: Sept. 16, 2022, 8:51 a.m.

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4 Weeks of Data

The USDA released their backlog of weekly export data yesterday, and it lacked the fireworks that some market participants may have been looking for. For the most part, it was all within the range of estimates.

Harvest

Yield estimates have been wide enough to drive a truck through this year, but with harvest starting to roll forward, the market may start to get more clarity on what's actually out there in terms of yield. In the very early stages, we have heard more "better than expected" than "worse than expected".

Drought

Reuters is reporting that wheat farmers in Argentina are abandoning wheat acres due to a prolonged drought that is said to be the driest conditions in 30 years for some areas. This has some concerned as they begin to plant their corn crop.

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Corn

December corn futures broke through our pivot pocket from 682-685, opening the door for a potential retracement to 3-star support, 665-667. We wouldn't be surprised to see this pocket hold on the first test, but if it does give way it could spur technical selling down to our next support pocket, 647 1/4-650 1/4.

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Soybeans

November soybean futures have pulled back to and are lingering near our pivot pocket, 1446 1/4-1450 1/2. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from Monday's rally, along with the 100-day moving average. We would not be surprised to see this pocket hold today. With that said, there is risk of it eventually giving way, which could accelerate the selling down to our 4-star support pocket, 1404 1/2-1416 3/4.

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Wheat

Chicago wheat futures are retreating to Friday's breakout point. We talked about this in yesterday's report. "We believe that the Bulls have the technical advantage so long as they can defend our support pocket from 839-849, this was previously resistance. As far as resistance goes, there's not a lot of significant resistance until you get above the psychologically significant $9.00 handle. 909-913 represents previously important price points and the 200-day moving average."

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