Geopolitics and Inflation | Morning Express 9/12/2022
Posted: Sept. 12, 2022, 8:30 a.m.
- Do no miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday.
- Developments over the weekend point to Russian forces retreating from the Kharkiv region, with Ukrainian forces advancing. The war may be hitting an inflection point, but what does that mean? Is this the beginning of the end, or will things take a turn for the worse?
- For now, the news has aided the risk-on tailwinds that began last Wednesday with equity benchmarks and commodities gaining ground overnight while the U.S. Dollar slid sharply.
- U.S. CPI is in the crosshairs, due tomorrow at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for disinflation, headline CPI to fall -0.1% MoM, but remain at 8.1% YoY.
- Are inflation expectations now too low? Is the market unprepared for a small MoM uptick?
- Today, the U.S. Treasury will auction $41 billion 3-year Notes and $32 billion 10-year Notes.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4067.25, up 61.75 on Friday and 142.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,592.50, up 270.75 on Friday and 488.25 on the week
- It is roll week in the indices, and we traditionally roll on Tuesday’s.
- U.S. equity benchmarks remained bid through Friday and the S&P settled above major three-star resistance at 4059.50-4065 with no retreat.
- We are Neutral in Bias
- The bulls are in the driver’s seat while holding out above major three-star support at 4059.50-4065.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
NQ (September)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.79, up 3.25 on Friday and down 0.08 on the week
- Russia retreating and seen on their backfoot may mark an escalation of conflict and has invited geopolitical premiums.
- Iran Nuclear Deal in doubt, France, Britain, and Germany
- Price action cleared a significant level of resistance at 86.16-86.28 on settlement Friday to near unchanged on the week.
- Bulls have the edge on the session while holding out above our Pivot and point of balance.
- Still, rare major four-star resistance comes in at 89.43-90.39.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1728.6, up 8.4 on Friday and 6.0 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18.767, up 0.325 on Friday and 0.886 on the week
- Silver is surging on the session and trading back through the 50-day moving average on short covering.
- The risk of a re-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war now that Russia is seen on its backfoot reinvites geopolitical premiums.
- Gold is sticking its head above major three-star resistance at 1737.5-1740.
- U.S. CPI in the balance tomorrow and today’s strength has Neutralized our near-term negative outlook.
- Floor of support in each Gold and Silver on the week at 1720.2-1722.6 and 18.76-18.83.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Silver (December)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial