U.S. Dollar Slides, Risk-Assets Thrive | Morning Express 9/9/2022
Posted: Sept. 9, 2022, 8:49 a.m.
- The U.S. Dollar Index slid sharply overnight due to broad strength in foreign currencies from oversold conditions. The move comes after the ECB hiked rates 75 basis points yesterday and expectations now mount for another large 75 point increase in October. Overnight, BoJ Governor Kuroda called the “rapid Yen moves undesirable”, helping to underpin a rebound in the Yen from weakest level against the U.S. Dollar since 1998.
- U.S. equity benchmarks battled volatility yesterday to finish strongly, with the S&P right up against last Friday’s failed high. The Dollar weakness helped fuel the S&P through this resistance and to the highest level since last Tuesday.
- Wholesale inventories are due at 9:00 am CT.
- Fed Governor Waller speaks at 11:00 am CT, along with Kansas City Fed President George, a 2022 voter.
- Bill Baruch joined the CME Group to talk about the Euro.
- Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4005.50, up 25.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,321.75, up 58.50
Fundamentals: Clearing last Friday’s high in the S&P neutralizes our Bias, however, for two reasons we will continue to hold a cautiously Bearish Bias. Given the sharp move higher overnight, the S&P is already closing in on major three-star resistance. The opening bell high on August 30th was 4046.50 and the .382 retracement back to the August 16th high comes in at 4053.25. This creates a thick range of strong resistance all the way up to 4065. Also, the NQ is still testing its high from last Friday ahead of the bell. Major three-star support in the S&P and NQ now comes in at 4003-4010.75 and 12,301-12,321; a break below these levels will encourage added selling.
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NQ (September)
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Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close:Settled at 83.54, up 1.60
Fundamentals: Markets tend to make the news, therefore many reasons are likely to be attributed to today’s rebound in Crude. However, we all know the catalyst was a test and hold of our rare major four-star support at 81.75-82.63. This is now dialed down to a three-star. Still, strong major three-star resistance stand overhead at 86.16-86.28 and the .382 back to the August 30th high comes in at 87.49.
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Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1720.2, down 7.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18.44, up 0.182
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver enjoyed the weaker U.S. Dollar overnight. Although still hanging onto positive territory for the session, the metals complex is on its back foot. Each Gold and Silver did fail at major three-star resistance at 1737.5-1740 and 18.83; we will maintain a cautiously Bearish Bias until a close above here.
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Silver (December)
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