September Kicks Off With Panic | Morning Express 9/1/2022
Posted: Sept. 1, 2022, 9:03 a.m.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3956.50, down 31.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,285.25, down 73.50
Fundamentals:
September kicks off with panic. U.S. equity benchmarks finished Thursday on session lows with the S&P down 2.5% on the week. Bonds plunged late in the electronic session, post-settlement, with the U.S. 10-year Note yield going from 3.125% to 3.196%. Rising yields weighed on the risk appetite and were coupled with news from NVIDIA to start the evening session. The company filed an 8-K detailing an immediate request by the U.S. government to halt chip and data center sales to China and Russia. The stock plunged as much as 7% but has cut losses in half ahead of the bell. Sentiment was further dented after news China will lock down Chengdu to fight a new virus outbreak, a western city with 21 million residents.
As the week winds down, the data picks up. Initial Jobless Claims fell to a nine week low and last week’s was revised better. The stronger jobs data is viewed as negative for the market, encouraging a steadfastly hawkish Federal Reserve. Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for Q2 were mixed, both coming in lower than expected; productivity was lower but it didn’t cost as much as expected. Manufacturing PMIs are now front and center with the final August SPGI read due at 8:45 am CT and the more closely watched ISM read due at 9:00 am CT. It is expected to expand at a softer pace of 52.0 versus 52.8 in July, the Employment to contract for the fourth month in a row at 49.0, and Prices are expected to drop for the fifth month in a row and to the lowest pace of growth since August 2020. And, do not forget, Nonfarm Payrolls will be due tomorrow. Bill Baruch will give a rundown on today’s Midday Market Minute.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
NQ (September)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 89.55, down 2.09
Fundamentals: We Neutralized our long-standing Bullish Bias in Crude upon Tuesday’s reversal and breach of $93. Although we do remain upbeat Crude Oil and the energy space over the intermediate- to long-term, it would seem the headwinds in the near-term are mounting. Furthermore, we must remember, Crude Oil achieved our upside target of 96.75-96.85 before reversing. Today, China’s lock down of Chengdu, a metropolis with 21 million residents, has further weighed on demand sentiment. Furthermore, given expectations for the global growth outlook, OPEC+ is taking a rhetoric of potential seeing demand slip in the fourth quarter. For now, this will be seen as a negative. However, this gives them an excuse to contain supply, bringing a bullish narrative as we look out.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1726.1, down 10.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17.882, down 0.405
Fundamentals: Tiiiimber! Yes, Gold is eyeing the 1700 mark for the first time since July 21st, which was the first time it pinged below $1700 since August of 2021 and Silver has broken sharply to a more than two-year low. We sent out a note Sunday evening detailing our newfound Bearish stance on Gold and Silver, describing how value can be seen in 1700 puts for expiration next Friday. For those of you who have missed the drop, from a glass half full perspective, this weakness should bring a tremendous buying opportunity later this month. The U.S. Dollar Index is gearing for a breakout while the Treasury market is collapsing, both of which will weigh further on Gold. We discuss today’s slate of economic data in detail in the S&P/NQ section.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Silver (December)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial