Diverging Sentiments | Morning Express 08/16/2022
Posted: Aug. 16, 2022, 8:48 a.m.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4298.25, up 17.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,681.25, up 103.50
Fundamentals: U.S. equity benchmarks secured another strong intraday session yesterday but again consolidated lower overnight. This type of price action certainly exudes less investor enthusiasm globally than domestically. Who can blame them, between a war-driven energy crisis in Europe and broadening draconian conditions in Asia thanks to China’s communist party? This morning, German ZEW Sentiment came in below expectations and hit the lowest level since December 2011. The Eurozone read eked out a beat but came in at the lowest level since November 2011. In Asia, the Hang Seng slipped by 1.05%. This comes after the PBoC staved off selling Monday with a 10 basis points rate cut on the heels of an awful slate of economic data for July. The focus now shifts domestically with sentiment zeroing in on retail earnings. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, crushed estimates and reaffirmed their second half guidance. The stock is +2.40% ahead of the bell. Home Depot also beat top-and bottom-line estimates, but the stock is lower by nearly 1% due to weaker ‘do-it-yourself’ demand, a miss on margins, and higher inventories. Building Permits and Housing Starts are due at 7:30 am CT and Industrial Production follows at 8:15 am CT. This leads into Retail Sales data tomorrow along with earnings from Target and Lowe’s, capped off with by the Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting later that afternoon.
Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
NQ (September)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 89.41, down 2.68
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is still roiling through Sunday night’s slate of China data, but has shown signs of stability, trading as high as 90.65 this morning. Jolts of strength are coming after Iran officially responded to the EU overnight, reiterating their demand for “U.S. flexibility”. Although this was not surprising and some are calling the Nuclear Deal closer than ever, it pins the need for a U.S. response, encouraging a price consolidation from lower levels. Also in the news, Barclays lowered their forecast for Brent by $8, to average $103 for both 2022 and 2023. They also called for WTI to average $99 for both 2022 and 2023. Regardless, yesterday’s selling brought immense technical damage as the focus also shifts to inventory data and tomorrow’s September Option Expiration. Early estimates for U.S. inventories are -0.117 mb Crude, -1.494 mb Gasoline, and +10.67 mb Distillates.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1798.1, down 17.4
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20.272, down 0.426
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver were whacked to start the week due to currency dynamics and the idea of less demand in a deflationary environment. Most importantly, the U.S. Dollar gained 1.17% against the Chinese Yuan yesterday, reaching the highest level since May 16th, when the USDCNH was peaking after a 7.2% four-week rip through a May 13th high. Furthermore, yesterday’s 1.17% topped any gain during that four-week surge and appears to match the best gain since March 19, 2020. With the U.S. Dollar broadly buoyant and Treasuries turning lower on the session, Gold and Silver traded to session lows on the traditional intraday open at 7:20 am CT and after mixed but better than feared housing data. Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes are due tomorrow. Also, traders should keep an ear to the ground for fresh Fed speak.
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Silver (September)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial