Major Drivers to Close Out the Quarter | Morning Express 06/27/22
Posted: June 27, 2022, 8:54 a.m.
The Morning Express will be abbreviated this week. The author, Bill Baruch, is on vacation with his family. Updated levels will be provided most days, but content will be thin in an effort to spend available time on actively managing positioning. If you have market related questions, please email info@bluelinefutures.com and the Blue Line Futures team will respond accordingly.
- Do not mis our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday.
- The S&P +6.5% an NQ +7.4% last week closed above the June 10th gap settlement
- U.S. 10-year yield held 3.00% support we highlighted throughout the week to finish at 3.134%, rising to 3.18% today.
- China led gains overnight with the Hang Seng posting +2.35% after officials promised to continue supporting the economic recovery.
- G7 June 26 – 28, discussions on Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions on Russian energy/materials, countering China’s infrastructure planning, Iran Nuclear Deal, and global economy, among other topics.
- Russia has defaulted on foreign currency sovereign debt in a mostly symbolic event. Due to sanctions, Russia says it cannot send the money to bondholders. The country is arguably becoming cash rich, selling commodities in Rubles to Asia.
- ECB meets in Portugal this week. The use of an ‘anti-fragmentation tool’ will be the hot topic, in attempt to avoid a bond fallout as the bank is set to hike rates next month.
- Italian debt leads the ECB conversation. After the yield of the Italian 10-year retreated from a 4.305% peak, it was down six of seven sessions, to 3.419% low. It is now up for the last two sessions at 3.66% today.
- Durable Goods beat expectations this morning and Pending Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT.
- U.S. Treasury will sell $46 billion 2-years and $47 billion 5-years today. Also, $40 billion -years tomorrow.
- ECB President Lagarde is expected to speak at 1:30 pm CT
- NY Fed President Williams speaks at 5:30 pm CT.
- Japan, 2-year JGB auction and BoJ Core CPI overnight tonight. The Yen’s fallout must be closely watched.
- Tomorrow, Case Shiller Home Price Index tomorrow at 8:00 am CT and CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT.
- Final Q1 GDP and Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday morning.
Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute from Friday.
Bill Baruch joined CNBC on Friday to discuss inflation and commodities.
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3916.25, up 116.50 on Friday and 240.50 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,140.50, up 403.50 on Friday and 843.75 on the week
Highlights from Friday’s Morning Express:
- Did equity markets incur capitulation over the last two weeks?
- Last week was record weekly volume in the Russell 2000 and the most weekly volume in both the S&P and NQ since March 2020. Capitulation is defined by volume.
- Despite ongoing weakness, investors have been resilient, until now; another sign of capitulation.
- According to Bank of America data, in the week ending June 22nd, U.S. equities had their first week of outflows in seven weeks, totaling $17.4 billion. Bloomberg
- Global equity funds had their biggest week of outflows in nine weeks
- SURE SEEMS LIKE A NICE TIME FOR STOCKS TO RALLY. Friendly Friday?
Looking ahead:
- We remain cautiously Bullish. Although it is ok for price action to digest last week’s run, it must hold constructively at Friday’s breakout. Major three-star support at 3900.50 and 12,001-12,021.
- Overnight high in S&P is 3948, 21-day moving average aligns to bring major three-star resistance at 3943.50-3946.75
- Constructive path would point to rare major four-star resistances at 4017.50 in the S&P
- Similar resistance in the NQ aligning with the June 9th gap close comes in at 12,305
- Tech is outpacing, as expected, and construction in the S&P would point to NQ testing 12,520-12,565
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
NQ (September)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Crude Oil (August)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 107.62, up 3.35 on Friday and -0.37 on the week
Technicals Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1830.3, up 0.5 on Friday and down 10.3 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.125, up 0.083 on the week and down 0.462 on the week
- Gold and Silver opened up strong Sunday night, but have struggled to muscle through those opening spikes, leaving the tape vulnerable.
- Gold and Silver July options expire today, July Silver futures begin to roll off. We attribute recent pressures in commodities to the July contract expirations.
- Still, it has been a nice rebound from Friday’s early flush.
- G7 will ban Russian precious metals imports, grabbing headlines, but nothing new.
- U.S. Dollar Index is down on the day buy USDCNH slight firmer
- Treasury futures are lower on the session, yields up; weighs on Gold and Silver.
- Gold must hold out above major three-star support at 1826.5-1830.9 in order to continue its construction.
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
Silver (July)
Levels Premium
🔒 You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Sign up for a Free Trial
Start Trading with Blue Line Futures
Don't have an account with Blue Line Futures?
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Like this post? Share it below:
Back to Insights
In case you haven't already, you can sign up for a complimentary 2-week trial of our complete research packet, Blue Line Express.
Free Trial