Is The Grain Rally Finished?
Posted: July 21, 2023, 7:57 a.m.
CornTechnicals (December) December corn futures failed to take out Wednesday's high, in yesterday's trade. That rejection may have spurred some technical profit taking and farmer selling on the back of what was about an 80-cent rally over the course of 5 trading days. The market broke below yesterday's low and the 100-day moving average in the overnight which has taken prices back to the 50-day moving average, 531 1/2. If the Bulls fail to get back out above our pivot pocket 540 1/2-545 we will likely move our bias to outright Bearish from Bearish/Neutral. Support comes in from 518-525 3/4. This was arguably the breakout point from July 18th. A break below that pocket and back below $5.00 is in the cards again. Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 562-564***, 573-576****, 600** Pivot: 540 1/2-545 Support: 518-525 3/4***, 485-490***, 476**, 460-465**** |
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Soybeans |
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Technicals (November) In yesterday's morning report we flipped our bias from Neutral to Bearish Neutral. Our 4-star resistance pocket from 1427 3/4-1435 was tested but ultimately the Bulls couldn't find any more gas in the tank to stage another extension of the rally. The market has set back into our pivot pocket from 1390-1400 this morning. A break and close below the low end of this could spark additional profit taking into the weekend. A retest of resistance would likely neutralize our short-term bias. Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 1427 3/4-1435****, 1448-1455*** Pivot: 1390-1400 Support: 1368-1378***, 1324-1332 3/4***, 1291-1300**** |
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WheatTechnicals (September) September wheat futures traded to the 200-day moving average yesterday and failed, which moved our bias out of Bullish territory and into Neutral. If it weren't for lingering headline risk, it would be outright Bearish. The market is back into our pivot pocket this morning, 700-706 1/2. A failure to defend this pocket could take us back to the breakdown point from July 19th, 678-688. Sometimes uncomfortable trades are the best trades, wheat shorts likely understand that feeling over the last 24-hours. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 726 3/4**, 747-751*** Pivot: 700-706 1/2 Support: 678-688***, 654-661***, 636-639** |
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