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Today's Headlines

Black Sea Grain Deal Suspended

A pact that has allowed the safe Black Sea export of grain from Ukraine for the past year will expire at the end of Monday after Russia said it will suspend its participation. -Reuters

 

Weekly Export Inspections Snapshot

 Corn: 363,818 MT

(Within the range of expectations)

Soybeans: 155,556 MT

(Below the low end of expectations)

Wheat: 253,409 MT

(Within the range of expectations)

 

NOPA Crush Snapshot

165.023 mln bu of soybeans

9-month low but +0.2% on June 2022

Below trade guess of 170.568 mln

 

Crop Progress Snapshot

Corn

57% Good/Excellent, inline with expectations

47% Silking

7% Dough

Soybeans

55% G/E, better than expectations

56% blooming

20% setting pods

 

Today's Market Recap

Grain futures were higher in the overnight trade but faded through the regular trading hours with corn and wheat finishing the day in negative territory. 

Corn

In this morning’s note to clients, we moved our bias to outright Neutral from Bullish territory nothing that there was significant resistance in corn up to 525 ¾ and that would be “a spot to consider reducing against and for the Bears it's a spot to consider using as a place to reenter shorts.”.  At the close, December corn futures were 7 ¾ cents lower, settling at 506, which was the low end of our pivot pocket (506-510) and over 20 cents off the session high. 

Soybeans

November soybeans managed to hold onto strength, thanks in part to potentially threatening heat as we head towards August (yes, we know it gets hot in the summertime).  At the close November soybeans were 7 ¼ cents higher, settling at 1378.  Today’s high came in 1388 ¾, just 1 ¼ cent away from our resistance pocket 1390-1400.

Wheat

September Chicago wheat futures opened higher at $6.66 last night, which thinking of it now may have been the kiss of death.  The market traded up to 689 ¼, but finished the day 7 ¾ cents lower, settling at 653 ¾.  In our early morning note to clients, we moved our bias from outright Bullish to Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic.  We specifically noted “Ignoring the noise and trading the charts, this is a spot for the Bulls to consider reducing long exposure against.”.  The tail that is left on the chart does not look promising for the Bulls.  

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

Below is a look at the 8-14 day forecast.  Hotter temperatures into the end of July and begniing of August will be something we will montior closely as it could have big implications on soybean development. 

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