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Corn

December corn futures finished the day 2-cents higher, settling at 501 ¼, that was a nickel off the high.  In the early morning trade it looked as though the market was going to attempt a breakout above last week’s highs 508-510, but that was put on hold when more participation came into the market at the 8:30 open.  On the chart, it looks like we could go either way from here with significant support and resistance levels roughly 15 cents lower and 15 cents higher. 

Soybeans

November soybeans finished the day 14 ¾ cents higher to 1360 ¼, achieving their highest close since June 21st.  The Bulls have control of the technical landscape so long as they can continue to defend the lows from Friday/Monday (1315-1318).  Resistance comes in near 1390-1400.

Wheat

September wheat futures were able to post a strong session, erasing losses from the previous two.  At the close the September contract was 14 ¼ cents higher, settling at 660 ½.  Significant resistance remains intact near 680.

Volatility Ahead of WASDE Report

Despite a relatively quiet day in the corn market (relative to what we saw a few weeks ago) the CME CVOL index rose by 3.04 to 36.46.  Uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s WASDE report is the likely catalyst.  Soybeans saw a wider ranging trade, so an uptick in volatility there didn’t seem so out of the norm relative to the price action.

The big debate ahead of tomorrow’s report has been whether the USDA will drop the corn yield.  I don’t think there’s much debate around if they should, as I think most folks are in the camp (and rightfully so) that this year’s crop will be below trendline.  I think the bigger debate is will they.  The last time the USDA lowered corn yield in the July report was 2012.  With that in mind, I think it’s important to temper the expectations when it comes to the USDA lowering yield.

Updated 6-10 Day Weather Outlook

The updated 6-10 day outlook continues to show near normal temperatures with above normal precipitation for much of the Grainbelt.  

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