Lean Hogs: A Market Top or a Healthy Correction?

Posted: July 10, 2023, 8:15 a.m.

   

Live Cattle

Technicals (August - Q)

August live cattle caught a bid on Friday, rallying back near the top end of the last month's range.  There's not a ton of resistance up here, but the little that there is comes in from 177.35-178.10.  Above that pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory.  Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds holidng a net long position of 111,914 futures/options contracts, an increase of about 2,500 contracts from the previous week.  

Resistance:  177.35-178.15**

Support: 174.17-174.40***, 170.95-171.50*** 

     

Feeder Cattle

Technicals (August-Q)

August feeder cattle futures managed to stage a strong recovery on Friday, which filled the gap from Thursday morning.  With the choppiness of the corn market will likely come choppiness in the Feeders.  Resistance remains intact from 248.075-248.85.  Our pivot pocket that the Bulls want to defend comes in from 244.47-245.17.  Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net long position of 17,327 futures/options contracts, up about 1,500 from the previous week.  

Resistance: 248.075-248.85***

Pivot: 244.47-245.175

Support: 240.90-241.90***, 236.40-236.60***

     

Lean Hogs

Technicals (August- Q)

August lean hogs tested the 200-day moving average last week, for the first time since breaking down on March 15th.  The market had a wicked reversal off of that full retracement on Thursday, which led to some additional pressure in Friday's trade.  All in all, the pullback (albeit fierce) is welcomed after such a strong one-month rally.  Support comes in from 92.70-93.825.  If the market continues to pullback and the Bulls can defend this pocket, it may present a good risk/reward buying opportunity.  Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds  holding a net long position of 14,886 futures/options contracts, up about 2,300 from last week.  Historically (looking at the last 5-years), a normal net long position for the Funds would be around 30-40k.

Resistance: 96.67-96.80**, 98.15***

Support:  94.75**, 92.70-93.825****

     



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Livestock Feeder Cattle Lean Hogs Live Cattle Livestock Rundown

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