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How does the chart look? 

Corn futures pulled back on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as mentioned in interviews with Ag-Day earlier in the week, we viewed it as constructive as it was nearly a perfect 50% retracement of the low to high move from May 18th to May 26th (see chart below).  That was a sharp rally during that time frame, pullbacks after a move like that are generally constructive. The market is now testing a big resistance pocket, from the mid 540's to 550.  This pocket was significant support last summer and was the breakdown point from April 27th.  If weather continues to be hot and dry, it could help stage a breakout which could take prices back to trendline resistance and the 100-day moving average (see chart below).

How are funds positioned?

In the most recent Commitment of Traders report (as of 5/30/23), funds were net buyers of 46,962 futures/options contracts.  Funds covered 47,132 short positions, while longs only covered 172 contracts.  Funds are still net short 51,065 futures/options contracts.  Broken down that is 171,723 longs versus 222,788 shorts.  

What do we typically see this time of year?

Below is a look at the seasonal tendencies over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.  As you can see, historically we've seen the market rally into the middle of June.  Looking at the back half of the Month, we've histroically seen prices decline.  Obviously weather will be the key driver here.  Below this chart is another one that compares this year to 2012 and 2013.

Below is a look at this year's price chart versus that of 2012 and 2013.

How are the forecasts looking? 

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