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The market giveth and the market taketh.  That pretty much sums up last week and then today’s trade.  At the close, new crop corn was 9 ¼ lower to settle at 525 1/4.  New crop beans fared even worse, settling 36 ¼ cents lower to 1153 ¼, the lowest settlement for this contract since July of 2021.  Wheat futures made new lows for the move, settling 25 cents lower to 591, the lowest levels since the spring of 2021.

Yesterday and this morning we laid out the technical landscape, sighting a wall of resistance near 606 that moved our bias from Bullish territory to outright Neutral.  The market closed just a hair below our pivot pocket from 595-601.  This moves our short-term bias from outright Neutral to Neutral/Bearish.

There's been a lot of talk about 2012 and 2013 this year.  Just for fun, below is a chart of this year's December contract versus those years.

On the soybean side of things, 1299-1310 is a pocket that we’ve defined as “MUST HOLD”.  That didn’t hold today, which moves our bias from Neutral/Bullish (aka cautiously optimistic) to outright Neutral.  The RSI (relative strength index) is at 30.17, it’s still outside what most technicians refer to as “oversold”.  Keep in mind that Funds have been aggressively short wheat and somewhat aggressive short on corn.  Beans, Funds still hold a net long position, albeit a small one (4,147 futures/options contracts).  They have not held a net short position since March of 2020.  If you think Funds are long only beans, you’d be mistaken.  In May of 2019 they grew their net short position to 168,8325.  In that same CoT report, Funds were net short 282,918 corn contracts.  That’s not to say it will happen again, it’s to say that these are not extreme positions for corn or beans.  They have powder.  If you haven’t yet, be sure to subscribe at the bottom of this page to get our daily technical outlook each morning, for corn, soybeans, and wheat. 

As with corn above, we wanted to just leave a chart of this year's November prices versus that of 2012 and 2013.

 

Be sure to sign up below for a free trial of our daily techncial and fundamental grain market outlook,  sent out each morning before the open!

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