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Crop Progress Snapshot:

Corn:  81% planted, 1% below the average guess.  6% ahead of the 5-year average.

Soybeans:  66% planted, inline with average guesses.  14% ahead of the 5-year average.

Spring Wheat: 64% planted, 4% ahead of guesses.  9% behind the 5-year avearge.

Winter wheat: Good/Ecellent conditions: 31%.  Poor/Very Poor conditions: 40%.

 

Market Recap and Closing Prices

It was finally a uniformly green day in the grain markets (outside of oats, hopefully they know nothing). 

At first glance, it was July soybeans that led the way higher, but on a percentage basis it was July corn that inched out the title of the biggest gainer on the day.  July corn finished the session 16 ½ cents higher to settle at 571, smack dab in the middle of our 3-star resistance pocket that we laid out in this morning’s Grain Express, 569-572.  New crop December corn futures finished the day 9 ¼ cents higher, settling at 509.

July soybeans finished the day 34 cents higher, settling at 1341 ¼, this after testing and holding SIGNIFICANT support which we laid out as 1299-1310, noting in last week’s 2-Minute Drill and this morning’s Grain Express that this would be a spot for the Bulls to look long.  In this morning’s report we also noted “the first major hurdle they (Bulls) need to get over comes in quite a bit higher, 1345-1348.”.  Admittedly we didn’t think it would happen in the course of one session, but it shows us that money flow and technicals are playing a huge role in market movement (like it or not).  The new crop November contract settled the day 21 ½ cents higher to 1197, failing to reclaim ground above the psychologically significant $12.00 handle. 

Wheat continues to be dreadful, despite being positive on the day.  July Chicago wheat finished the day 1 ¼ cents higher to settle at 606 ¼.  July KC wheat was 1 ½ cents higher at the close, settling at 825 ¾.  July Spring wheat was 5 ½ cents higher to settle at 809 ½.   We’ve been looking long on wheat (Chicago specifically) and have been proven wrong over the last several weeks.  The short covering rally has not materialized and after fighting it for long enough it feels like it never will.  Despite that “feeling”, the risk of a short covering rally is still real and timing things of that nature is still extremely difficult.  In recent reports and interviews we’ve talked about options being a great tool to consider using to gain market exposure, while limiting risk. 

 

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