Grain Markets Ahead of This Week's USDA Report | Oliver Sloup on RFD-TV

Posted: May 8, 2023, 1:35 p.m.


The relief rally in the grain markets came to a screeching halt today, at least for corn and soybeans.  July corn futures finished the day’s trade at 596 ½, that was unchanged for the day.  In our daily Grain Express and in our morning interview with RFD-TV, we talked about 595-600 being a near-term inflection point for the market.  This pocket represents the breakdown point from April 27th.  A close above or a failure could be good enough of a clue to give the market for its next 15-20 cent move.  Looking at the new crop December contract, the chart has been and remains less friendly. 

July soybeans came into the morning trading to their highest price in two-weeks but failed to sustain that momentum through the day.  At the close, July futures were 2 ¾ cents lower at 1433 ¾.  The new crop November contract was 7 ½ lower to 1272 ½. 

July Chicago wheat tested and failed against our 4-star resistance pocket this morning, we’ve had that defined as 665-670.  In this morning’s Grain Express we noted “If you had gotten long exposure on last week, this may be a spot to consider reducing or hedging market exposure.  This is an important pocket, which was significant support from March to the eventual breakdown point on April 24th.”.  At the close, July Chicago wheat was 15 cents off the high, settling at 654, down 6 ¼ for the day.  July KC wheat was able to firm, finishing the day 11 ¼ higher to 844 ¼.  Minneapolis spring wheat was 7 ¾ higher to 843 ¾.

 

Crop Progress Snapshot

  • Corn:  49% planted, up from 26% last week.  The range of estimates was wide enough to drive a truck through, from 34%-64%, the average being 48%.
  • Soybeans: 35% planted, up from 19% last week.  The range of estimates was 25%-41%, the average being 34%.
  • Spring Wheat: 24% planted, up from 12% last week.  The range of estimates was 19%-49%, the average being 28%.



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